Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Possible Second Win for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.